Thinking about Politics Series
A series of post done in reaction to a reading of Corey Robin's "The Reactionary Mind". The goal was to lay down my thoughts on the core political divisions of modern politics.
Risk War of Analysis
A series of post applying the suggested simple Risk Barometer of War by Paul Senese and John Vasquez (The Steps to War), to a number of goverment dyads that were pertinent due to current events. Essentially a focus on the likelihood of specific dangerous dyads going to war in reaction to crises among them in current events.
Russia goverment-Turkey goverment dyad
Armenian goverment-Azerbaijan goverment dyad
Syrian goverment-Turkey goverment dyad
You can read the paper by clicking on the title.
Abstract:In this manuscript I conduct a comparative evaluation of the influence of militant liberal primacy and major power managerial coordination on political reforms that foster democracy. The central issue is the antithetical democracy promotion mechanisms of militant liberal hegemony and major power managerial coordination. The first rests of the use of military force, while the second fosters democracy by fostering interstate peace. Using the novel scale of major power managerial coordination I compare the effect of major power coordination with that of liberal primacy, measured using the concept of preponderant sea-power in the 1800-20001 period.
Abstract:Recent research has questioned the long-standing argument that capability distributions are the main variable of interest when trying to evaluate the relationship between major power politics and interstate peace. Instead primacy by liberal powers, mainly the US and UK, is seen as conducive to international peace. The focus has moved from what the distribution of capabilities is, to which major power benefits from it. However, considering that this primacy has rarely been so absolute that these powers could act with impunity, I argue that the quality of the general relations between the major powers has a greater fostering influence on interstate peace than either capability distributions or liberal primacy. Specifically, I argue that major power managerial coordination, the concentrated effort of the major powers towards a regime that facilitates the pacific resolution of international issues, has an important independent negative association with interstate conflict. To adjudicate between the pacific effect of capability distributions, primacy and managerial coordination I conduct a comparative quantitative evaluation of the association between variance in variables measuring each concept with the onset of wars among dyads of states in the 1816-2001 period.
“The puzzle of Polish- Austrian Relations in the 17th and 18th centuries”
This paper is based on a course final paper I wrote for a course on the political history of Early Modern Europe, conducted by Dr. Charles Ingrao at the University of Chicago. I tried to build a fuller research paper out of it but could never fully satisfy the demand for Political Science for more empirical work, and the demand of History for more primary sources. It thus has languished. My hope us down the way to use it as a chapter in larger work on the concept of order and cooperation in security in international relations. But one does not know when that will happen. So enjoy. Perhaps you can find use for it (with proper attribution).
Abstract: In a world of scarce security, stable security communities seem to only exist among democratic states. However, the example of Austro-Polish relations in the 17th and 18th century provides some indicators of the conditions under which non-democratic states can establish a security community among themselves, and how that community can come to an end.