Thinking about Politics Series
A series of post done in reaction to a reading of Corey Robin's "The Reactionary Mind". The goal was to lay down my thoughts on the core political divisions of modern politics.
Risk War of Analysis
A series of post applying the suggested simple Risk Barometer of War by Paul Senese and John Vasquez (The Steps to War), to a number of goverment dyads that were pertinent due to current events. Essentially a focus on the likelihood of specific dangerous dyads going to war in reaction to crises among them in current events.
Russia goverment-Turkey goverment dyad
Armenian goverment-Azerbaijan goverment dyad
Syrian goverment-Turkey goverment dyad
You can read the paper by clicking on the title.
Abstract:In this manuscript I conduct a comparative evaluation of the influence of militant liberal primacy and major power managerial coordination on political reforms that foster democracy. The central issue is the antithetical democracy promotion mechanisms of militant liberal hegemony and major power managerial coordination. The first rests of the use of military force, while the second fosters democracy by fostering interstate peace. Using the novel scale of major power managerial coordination I compare the effect of major power coordination with that of liberal primacy, measured using the concept of preponderant sea-power in the 1800-20001 period.
Abstract:Recent research has questioned the long-standing argument that capability distributions are the main variable of interest when trying to evaluate the relationship between major power politics and interstate peace. Instead primacy by liberal powers, mainly the US and UK, is seen as conducive to international peace. The focus has moved from what the distribution of capabilities is, to which major power benefits from it. However, considering that this primacy has rarely been so absolute that these powers could act with impunity, I argue that the quality of the general relations between the major powers has a greater fostering influence on interstate peace than either capability distributions or liberal primacy. Specifically, I argue that major power managerial coordination, the concentrated effort of the major powers towards a regime that facilitates the pacific resolution of international issues, has an important independent negative association with interstate conflict. To adjudicate between the pacific effect of capability distributions, primacy and managerial coordination I conduct a comparative quantitative evaluation of the association between variance in variables measuring each concept with the onset of wars among dyads of states in the 1816-2001 period.